Friday, January 9, 2009

Trade non-farm payroll?

Non-Farm payroll usually happens every 1st month of friday. It measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, not including the farming industry. During this forex trading time, do expect great volatility. Curreny pairs surges up or down within seconds before moving to a strong direction.

Previous month non-farm payroll was -533k and analysts expect this month to be -520k. However, ADP non-farm payroll previous month was -476k this month was -693k. As both are 90% correlated, rumors that today non-farm payroll might be around -600k to -700k? If this do happens, dollar might be weaker and do expect EURUSD1.40 coming soon.

However, history has shown that during the past 50 years, non-farm payroll rebounded close to 50% once it hits the region of around -500k. This might happen today. If this do happens again dollar will strengthen. EURUSD will be headed south instead.

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